Why Do Sportsbooks Think Tom Brady Will Dominate The Bills?

by
Tom Brady
  • Tom Brady is leading the NFL MVP race with +150 odds.
  • Josh Allen is right behind him, with +450 odds to win the NFL MVP.
  • The two face off on Sunday, with Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting Allen’s Buffalo Bills.

TAMPA, Fla. - The two quarterbacks leading the NFL’s MVP race are set to face off in Tampa as the Buffalo Bills visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Allen of the Bills is second in MVP odds, despite having an up-and-down season, while Tom Brady of the Bucs leads the pack.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

  • Tom Brady +150
  • Josh Allen +450
  • Aaron Rodgers +650
  • Kyler Murray +800
  • Patrick Mahomes +1200

Of the two, it is Brady who is expected to pass for the most yards on Sunday, despite the fact that the Buffalo Bills defense has been incredibly effective against opposing passers this season.

Tom Brady Passing Yards O/U Odds

  • Over 310.5 -115
  • Under 310.5 -115

No matter how good Brady is, 311+ yards is a big ask. The Bills defense is giving up an average of 165.3 passing yards per game, first in the NFL by a significant margin. Granted, this average is a bit skewed by their most recent game against the New England Patriots, in which the Patriots only attempted three passes.

Still, the Bills are utterly and completely dominant against the pass, and Brady has only gone over 310.5 passing yards five times this season.

Josh Allen Passing Yards O/U Odds

  • Over 295.5 -115
  • Under 295.5 -115

Allen’s expectations are a bit lower, but the Buccaneers defense is far worse than the Buffalo defense.

The Bucs are giving up 248 passing yards per game, which is 20th in the NFL. Allen, meanwhile, is averaging 268 passing yards per game.

NFL betting fans will notice that this is significantly less than what he is projected to hit - the online sportsbooks seem to be expecting this game to be a shootout, despite the defensive quality involved.

Allen has only gone over 295.5 passing yards four times this season, although the Bucs are on the mid-to-low end of NFL defenses. Whichever of these QBs manages to perform better could see a serious boost in their odds to win the MVP this year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST. The game will be broadcast on CBS and NFL Network.

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