- The Jacksonville Jaguars have +600 odds to win the AFC South.
- Projected to win six games, sportsbooks are favoring the under.
- Underdogs in four divisional games, the order of opponents could be beneficial.
JACKSONVILLE – Though the Jacksonville Jaguars are never one to hit the win total over, win their division, or make the playoffs, progress has occurred over the years.
Aside from bringing in coach Doug Pederson, along with targets in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, the Jaguars should look better with Trevor Lawrence having a year of the NFL under his belt.
Still, NFL oddsmakers are posting longshot odds for any Jaguars bet.
AFC South Division Odds
- Indianapolis Colts -120
- Tennessee Titans +160
- Jacksonville Jaguars +600
- Houston Texans +2800
The Indianapolis Colts are the betting favorite while the Tennessee Titans’ AFC South odds are just behind. In essence, sportsbooks see this as a two-team race.
However, are the +600 odds to win a division too much to overlook?
AFC South Win Totals
| Team: | Over: | Odds: | Under: | Odds: |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Over 6 | -105 | Under 6 | -125 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Over 10 | -125 | Under 10 | -105 |
| Houston Texans | Over 5 | -105 | Under 5 | -125 |
| Tennessee Titans | Over 9.5 | +110 | Under 9.5 | -145 |
The Colts are the only team favored to go over their win total. Add in the fact that they have the highest win total, and most would seem keen on a Colts future bet.
Past history does not support taking the Jaguars, but history does not relate to the future. Still, their betting history for win totals doesn’t look promising.
Jags Betting History: Total Wins
| Year: | Projection: | Over Odds: | Under Odds: | Result: |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6.5 | +110 | -130 | Under |
| 2020 | 4.5 | -110 | -110 | Under |
| 2019 | 8 | -110 | -110 | Under |
| 2018 | 9 | -130 | +110 | Under |
| 2017 | 6.5 | -125 | +105 | Over |
| 2016 | 7.5 | -125 | +105 | Under |
| 2015 | 5.5 | -120 | +100 | Under |
Set at six wins for the 2022 season, this number will likely not be enough to win the division. However, Jacksonville has been in this situation before.
In 2017, the odds relate very well to current day.
- 2017: +350 to make playoffs, +600 to win AFC South
- 2022: +400 to make playoffs, +600 to win AFC South
The Jaguars are underdogs in 14 of their 17 games this season. Aside from one pick ’em, the Jags are only favored in two games.
Beating Their Divisional Opponents
In reality, anyone betting on the Jags to win the AFC South will need help from them within the division.
In four of the six AFC South games, the Jags are underdogs, while the Pick em and favorite status both come against the Houston Texans.
Jags Divisional Game Lines
- Week 2: +4.5 vs. Colts
- Week 6: +7 at Colts
- Week 5: -3 vs. Texans
- Week 16: PK at Texans
- Week 13: +6.5 at Titans
- Week 17: +3 vs. Titans
The schedule does help, though. With the 7th hardest schedule last season, the Jaguars have the 7th easiest schedule this time around.
Moreover, the timing on the schedule could play a large role in the Jaguars success.
The Jaguars battle the Colts early in the season. With Matt Ryan under center, the Colts may have growing pains with a new QB in place. Securing a Week 2 victory at home, the Jaguars could be able to win an early divisional game, shortening their odds almost instantly.
The Texans come next, who kept Davis Mills in the bottom 10 for time to throw on dropbacks. With Lawrence being in the top 10, the Jaguars may be able to win both games based on lineman play.
The largest challenge could come from the back to back divisional champs in the Titans. However, playing late in the season could be the best situation. Drafting Malik Willis in the third round, the Titans have ultimately put Ryan Tannehill on the hot seat. Two-thirds of the season in, anything could change quite easily.
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Michael has been writing about sports for over a decade and his focus on NFL betting action has followed suit. As a Baltimore Ravens fan, he has been heavily invested in the AFC North since the turn of the century. When he is not writing about football, you can find him on the beach, in a casino, or at a bowling alley.