- Herbert’s over 38.5 pass attempts prop comes in at -130.
- His 280.5 pass yards prop offers decent value at -117 for the over.
- Jaguars finished season as a bottom 5 pass defense.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers look for their first playoff win since 2018.
NFL sportsbooks seemingly predict Herbert to have a big game with a passing yards prop of 280.5 set at -117 odds to go over.
Herbert went over this prop in just 2 of his final 5 games, but did throw for a strong 297 yards in the week 3 meeting against Jacksonville.
How Herbert Fares Against Weak Defenses
While Herbert has been having an uncharacteristically weak season with career lows in touchdowns and yards per game, the Jaguars are a very attackable defense in a game with a high total of 47.5, second highest among Wild Card matchups.
In 6 games against bottom 10 ranked pass defenses, Herbert has posted averages of: 28.7 completions, 43 attempts, 290.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns.
With a prop of 38.5 pass attempts at -130 odds for the over, Herbert should see plenty of passing volume in a projected high scoring game with a soft defense. In fact, Herbert has never averaged less than 39.5 pass attempts per game in his entire career, offering big value for bettors.
A Look Back At Week 3
Back in week 3, the Jaguars throttled the Chargers in a 38-10 beatdown.
However, despite a season low 55.6% completion percentage, Herbert still went over both his 38.5 pass attempts (-130) and his 280.5 pass yards (-117) props. With a season average of 68.2% completion percentage, Herbert should be able to clear his player props with relative ease barring another outlier game from the Jags defense.
Thus, in a projected high scoring game (O/U 47.5) where the Chargers, who pass on just under 65% of their total plays, face a bottom 5 ranked Jaguars pass defense, Justin Herbert having a strong game is a likely outcome. Even with season average play, Herbert has a good shot to replicate his stat line from the first meeting, if not far exceed it.
Justin Herbert over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-130)
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Jeremias is a lifelong Jaguars fan that began following football closely in 2013. He is a current Florida State University student with a double major in Media/Communication Studies and Editing, Writing, and Media. In his free time, you can find him writing, researching, betting, and watching all things NFL, NBA, and NHL related.