- Odds have the Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills.
- The point total for the AFC Championship is set at 47.5 points.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The AFC Championship between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills marks the ninth all time meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
In their ninth meeting, Super Bowl sportsbooks are slightly leaning towards the Chiefs. The all-time series is split is an even 4-4.
Buffalo Bills Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Moneyline: Bills (+110) vs. Chiefs (-130)
- Spread: Chiefs -1.5
- Total: 47.5
Series Trends
In their eight prior meetings, three of them have come in the playoffs where the Chiefs have gone 3-0 in those games covering -1.5 points in all three as well. Also in those three playoff meetings, the 47.5-point total has gone over in each game.
In those three playoff games, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,032 yards, 8 touchdowns, and no interceptions. As for Allen, he’s thrown for 802 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
Season Betting Trends
The Chiefs odds against the spread this season have been underwhelming despite being 16-2 to this point. They are 8-10 against the spread with a -0.6-cover margin and a +3.8-winning margin. They are also 7-11 going Over/Under this season at a -2.4-cover margin against the total as well.
As for the Bills odds, they are top-5 in the league against the spread with a 12-7 record and a league second-best, +5.8 cover margin and +9.6 winning margin on the season. Buffalo is 11-7-1 going Over/Under this season with a +4.9
Chiefs, Bills Prediction
On paper, it looks as if Buffalo is going to run away with this one and we are leaning that way as well. After failing to conquer Kansas City in the playoffs in their first three meetings, Buffalo is in line to finally get their revenge.
The Bills have the second-ranked offense in the NFL averaging 30.9 ppg on the season while the Chiefs are well behind averaging 22.6 ppg. On defense, both are top-15 in the league in points allowed with Kansas City allowing 19.2 ppg and Buffalo at 21.6 ppg.
That said, we're rolling with Buffalo at +110 moneyline odds in this one and under 47.5 points given the strength of both defenses.
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Samuel has been writing professionally for 4 years. He comes from a sports writing background where he enjoys writing mostly about basketball and football both professional and collegiate. He is a recent graduate of Florida State University where he majored in Editing, Writing and Media with a minor in Communications. During his free time, you can find him watching or playing sports as well as playing videogames and listening to music.