NFL Prop Bets: Will Cam Newton Win More Than Tom Brady?

• Prop bets are now available for Cam Newton to be the Week 1 starter for the New England Patriots, with -220 odds in favor of him getting the job.
• Other bets have released on whether Newton will start more than 8.5 games (-130), and if he will win more games than the man he is replacing, Tom Brady (+275).

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - With the news of the New England Patriots signing Cam Newton in free agency, oddsmakers have created some unique prop bets for the upcoming season.

The Patriots were in obvious need for a quarterback after the league was shaken by Tom Brady’s announcement to leave for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and now they appear to have found one.

Newton signed a one-year $7.5 million deal with New England in hopes that the dynamic playmaker would be a better option at quarterback than incumbent sophomore Jarret Stidham or veteran Brian Hoyer.

It isn’t too often that a team replaces an MVP-winning quarterback with another MVP-winning quarterback, but that is exactly the situation that Bill Belichick and his staff have orchestrated as they attempt to usher in the post-Brady era of Pats' football.

Oddsmakers have already jumped on the news and have released some noteworthy prop bets stemming from Newton’s new employment.

While most were quick to assume the starting job was locked up once Newton signed his name, there still is some speculation that the former Heisman Trophy winner might have to fight to become the next New England Patriots QB.

ESPN’s Dianna Russini tweeted that she spoke with an AFC East coach who still believes it is Stidham’s job to lose.

I spoke over text w/ an AFC East Head Coach on Cam Newton and the Patriots. “I think they are going to keep 3 QBs. Use Cam Newton perhaps as the wild card. I actually don't see him starting Week 1 in the offense...I know one thing for a fact: the #Patriots love Jarrett Stidham"

— Dianna Russini (@diannaESPN) July 1, 2020

Any word from a rival coach should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when assuming they have insight on the mind of Bill Belichick. Newton starting in Week 1 seems like the likely outcome.

With that said, the next prop poses relatively even odds on if Newton will start over half of the regular season games for the Patriots.

This bet comes down to whether or not Cam can stay healthy.

Over his career, Newton had been oddly durable considering his athletic play and bruising run style. In his first seven years in the NFL, Newton only missed five games for the Carolina Panthers.

That all changed in 2018 when Newton went down with a shoulder injury, missing the final two games of the season. Newton underwent successful surgery in the offseason, only to reaggravate a foot injury in Week 2 of 2019 that sidelined him for the rest of the season.

The folks over at Sports Injury Predictor have Newton set at a 45 percent chance of injury for the 2020 season.

It will be interesting to see how the Patriots offense will adapt to suit Newton’s playstyle, and if the mobile QB will find himself running less frequently. After all, the Pats haven’t exactly had a mobile quarterback for the last 20 years.

Speaking of that quarterback, the next set of props all directly compare Cam Newton to the man he is replacing, Tom Brady.

This bet is one of the more difficult ones to approach since the world really doesn’t know what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Patriots will look like until they take the field in 2020.

While the Bucs are getting all the preseason hype, the Patriots are still the Patriots, and it wouldn’t surprise many to see them end up in the playoffs again this year.

As far as personal performance, other lines have Brady and Newton going head-to-head on passing touchdowns.

Since Newton’s skillset is more widespread outside of his abilities as a passer, Brady gets the short odds here. The same process works for props that compare passing yards.

All in all, the only way Cam would win these scenarios is if he returns to his incredible MVP-level play, or Brady goes down with an injury.

Nevertheless, all eyes in the NFL betting world will be tuned into the future of these two dynamic quarterbacks as they get settled into their new homes.