AFC East Division Outlook For 2021-2022 NFL Season

• The Buffalo Bills are -150 betting favorites to win the AFC East.
• The New England Patriots win total is set at 9.5 games.
• The Miami Dolphins have +120 odds to make the playoffs.
• The New York Jets are listed at -475 to finish last in the AFC East.

LAS VEGAS – The AFC East, for a long time, was arguably the most uncompetitive division in the NFL. With Tom Brady heading to the NFC, the division has been opened up and seemingly claimed by the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo Bills: Division Winners

The Buffalo Bills are seemingly universally accepted as the best team in the AFC East. NFL betting sites have the team listed as the third choice to have the best regular-season record, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

They also have -160 odds to record over 11.0 wins, by far the highest in the division, and are -380 to make the playoffs.

Despite all this, the team has only a minor favorite to win the AFC East.

AFC East Division Winner Odds

• Buffalo Bills -150
• Miami Dolphins +315
• New England Patriots +340
• New York Jets +2400

This isn’t a line that anyone should overthink. Last season, the Bills put up 396.4 yards and 31.3 points per game, both of which ranked second in the league. There is little reason to predict any regression, and more to project improvement.

This is a line that will seem obvious in hindsight.

New England Patriots: Season Win Total

In 2020, the New England Patriots had 11.9% of total opt-outs across the NFL. The team also had a new quarterback for the first time in about 20 years and was still able to emerge with a seven-win season.

Now, with another year in the new system and a mightily improved team, the Pats win total is set at a modest 9.5 games.

New England Patriots Season Win Total

• Over 9.5 -135
• Under 9.5 +105

Sports betting sites could be vastly underestimating the Patriots’ ability to be successful. The team significantly improved after going on a spending spree in the offseason and should be in a good position to hit double-digit wins.

Miami Dolphins: Playoff Team?

The Miami Dolphins are likely going to go as far as their defense can take them.

They allowed just 21.1 points per game last season which ranked fifth-best in the NFL. However, they did allow 367.9 yards per game which placed 20th.

That isn’t necessarily a recipe for continued success which leaves the defense in a spot to regress a bit.

Miami Dolphins Odds To Make Playoffs

• Yes +120
• No -160

The offensive side of the ball isn’t too promising either as Tua Tagovailoa will need to have a breakout year to keep this team competitive. Given Tua’s comments last year, he's a tough person to put faith in to lead a team.

New York Jets: Lonely At The Bottom

If the New York Jets were to finish anywhere other than the last spot in the AFC East, it would be a huge surprise. Sure, Zach Wilson has a chance to be a franchise quarterback, but the team has too many issues on both sides of the ball.

Team To Finish Last Odds

• New York Jets -475
• New England Patriots +600
• Miami Dolphins +650
• Buffalo Bills +4000

Simply put, betting on the Jets to do poorly is in all likelihood the best move. They have the third shortest odds to have the worst record in the league, meaning they should have no problem finding themselves at the bottom of the AFC East.