Betting On The Colts Margin Of Victory For TNF

• The Indianapolis Colts are 10.5-point favorites over the New York Jets.
• The Colts have +375 odds to win by 1-6 points.
• There are +400 odds on the Colts winning by 7-12 points.

INDIANAPOLIS – The Indianapolis Colts are set to take on the New York Jets to kick off Week 9 on Thursday Night Football.

The Colts also have odds on their exact margin of victory which could potentially offer more value than betting on the spread.

Betting On The Spread

This marks the third year in a row that the Colts odds on the spread have seen double digits in their favor. Dating back to 2019, the Colts have been a double-digit favorite in three games and have covered twice.

In 2019 against the Miami Dolphins, Indy was a 10-point favorite and failed to cover. In 2020, the Colts met the Jets in Week 3 where they covered an 11.5-point spread winning the game 36-7.

This season, the Colts saw 11.5 points in their favor in Week 6 against the Houston Texans where they won 31-3.

As for the New York Jets, they have been a 10+ point underdog in five games since last season and have only covered two times.

The first time they covered was against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15 of 2020 where they were 17.5-point underdogs and won 23-20. The second time came this season where they were 11.5-point underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8 and won 34-31.

In general, both teams sit on opposite sides of the spectrum in terms of their record against the spread this season. The Colts have gone 5-3 ATS and are covering by an average of 3.4 points. The Jets are 2-5 ATS and are missing the cover by an average of 6.5 points.

Where The Value Lies

While betting on the Colts to cover the spread against a struggling Jets team might seem profitable, these odds do not offer the most value as a $100 bet on the Colts spread at -105 odds would pay out $95.

NFL sportsbooks also offer odds on the exact win margin. In this case, the Colts have +375 odds ($100 to win $375) to win by 1-6 points and +400 odds ($100 to win $400) to either win by 7-12 points or 13-18 points.

More money can be made betting on the win margin rather than betting on the spread itself. Betting $50 on the Colts to win by 1-6 points at +375 would profit $187.5. $50 on either the Colts winning by 7-12 or 13-18 would profit $200.

If two of those bets are taken at $50 each and just one were to hit, the minimum profit that could be made is $137.5 while the maximum profit is at $150 when accounting for the $50 loss on the other exact margin bet. Assuming the Jets aren't blow out by two touchdowns or more, a 50% increase in value can be hand when betting on the COlts.

Overall, for those that think the Jets could use their momentum from their Week 8 win and translate it to cover the spread, taking the 1-6 margin would be the way to go. For those that are following the Jets trends against a double-digit spread, the 7-12 or 13-18 margin works just as well.