Are Oddsmakers Undershooting Lamar Jackson’s Rushing Yards?

• Odds are available for Lamar Jackson’s 2020 Rushing Yards Total, putting the over/under at 919.5 yards for the season.
• This would be far below Jackson’s record-breaking 2019 season that saw him run for 1,206 yards on his way to an MVP season.

BALTIMORE – As NFL bettors analyze their season-long prop bets for the 2020 season, certain oddsmakers appear to be undervaluing the reigning NFL MVP.

Lamar Jackson sliced opposing defenses to swiss cheese last season, both in the air and on the ground, as he led his Baltimore Ravens to a 14-2 record.

Jackson threw for over 3,100 yards and an NFL-best 36 passing touchdowns in 2019. He also added 1,206 yards rushing, breaking the NFL record for QB rush yards in a season and becoming the first quarterback since Michael Vick to run for over 1,000 yards.

Now heading into only his third year in the league, oddsmakers appear to be questioning if Jackson can replicate the same amount of productivity with his legs.

Oddsmakers have given equal odds at -115 for the over/under on if Jackson can rack up 919.5 rushing yards.

That is almost 300 yards less than the accumulated in 2019.

Such a massive drop off in production has to mean that the bookmakers think something about the Ravens offense or Jackson’s game is set to change.

Historically, no quarterback has ever rushed for back-to-back 1000-yard seasons.

This is to be expected since Jackson’s 1,206 were the most all-time by a QB and only the second time a QB has surpassed 1,000 yards rushing.

Michael Vick could have possibly achieved the feat in 2007 but had his career put on pause due to dogfighting charges.

However, instead of Jackson having a lower production expectation, the NFL betting sites may be basing the number off what the man himself told media back in April.

"I doubt that I am going to be carrying the ball a lot going further into the future, because we have dynamic running backs and even more receivers," said, Jackson. "We have ‘Hollywood’ [Marquise Brown], Mark Andrews, Nick [Boyle], Willie Snead IV, Miles [Boykin], [so] we are going to be pretty good, and I don’t think I’ll be running a lot."

Here, Jackson is directly insinuating a potential shift in the offensive focus, at least on the ground.

Add in the Raven’s draft picks of explosive running back J.K. Dobbins and receiver Devin Duvernay and suddenly the number begins to make a bit more sense.

However, 300 yards is a major drop off from any player in terms of season wide production.

The glaring bet here is to take the over, and root for Jackson to run his way into the history books yet again in 2020.

John Harbaugh and staff will have to decide if it is the right move to run Jackson less, potentially protecting his future and extending his career, or to keep with the same dynamic attack that led them to 14 wins and a number one seed.