Betting on the Bills to Cover Against Miami in Playoffs

• The Bills are nine and a half point favorites against the Dolphins in Buffalo during the 2022-23 Wild Card Weekend.
• During the Dolphins' last six games, they have gone 3-3 ATS and 1-5 SU and have not yet cleared Tua for Sunday.
• The Bills have won their last two games and covered back to back eight point spread to end the 2022-23 season.

BUFFALO, N.Y. – The Buffalo Bills are hosting the Miami Dolphins during Wild Card Weekend and are nine and a half point favorites for the divisional matchup. During these two teams' 2022 matchups, each team has gotten a win when playing at home but the Bills are heavily favored for their third matchup of the season.

Game Lines

• Moneyline: Dolphins +360/Bills -500
• Spread: Dolphins +9.5/Bills -9.5
• Total: Over 46.0 (-110)/Under 46.0 (-110)

The Bills are facing a similar situation to start the playoffs, as they were favored by four points at home against the New England Patriots during Wild Card Weekend for the 2021-22 season. The Bills ended up winning that game by 30 points.

The Dolphins have played well against the Bills in 2022 by winning their first matchup and losing the second matchup by only three, but the Bills still have great value to win SU and cover the spread as the favorite to win the Super Bowl for the majority of the 2022-23 season.

The Bills finished the regular season with an 8-7-1 record ATS, going 3-4 when playing at home. However, the Bills have dominated in the last two weeks by covering two back to back eight point spreads.

Injured QBs Increase Bills Betting Value

Over their last six games, the Dolphins have only recorded a single victory and have gone 3-3 ATS. Led by third string Skylar Thompson, Miami needed the fourth quarter to beat the Jets, who were already eliminated from the playoffs, to have a chance at playing in the postseason themselves.

Part of the Dolphins’ struggles has been keeping the QB room healthy, dealing with injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater throughout the season. Tua has not played since being ruled out on Christmas day against the Green Bay Packers and Bridgewater left the New England Patriots game on New Year’s Day with a thumb injury.

Even if Tagovailoa does return for the playoff matchup in Buffalo, the Bills would still be favored by Super Bowl sportsbooks. He threw three interceptions during the loss to the Packers, resulting in his fourth straight loss for the Dolphins with him under center at that time.