Is Now the Time to Consider the Chargers Super Bowl Odds?

• The Los Angeles Chargers have +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl as of Week 14.
• The Chargers opened the season with +1400 odds to win the Super Bowl.
• FiveThirtyEight gives them a 0.3% chance to win the Super Bowl.

LOS ANGELES - The Los Angeles Chargers have never had longer odds to win the Super Bowl this season than they do right now.

Does that make it the right time to be on them at NFL betting sites?

Chargers Super Bowl Odds Chart

• Preseason +1400
• Week 2 +1200
• Week 6 +2000
• Week 10 +3000
• Week 14 +4000

Justin Herbert put on a clinic against the Miami Dolphins, throwing for 367 yards with a 76% completion percentage.

This win dragged the Chargers to 7-6, and within shouting distance of one of the AFC’s Wild Card spots.

Their +4000 odds imply about a 1-in-40 chance that the Chargers win the Super Bowl, which might be good value. Of course, the first step to winning the Super Bowl is making the playoffs.

NFL 2022/23 Odds To Make The Playoffs: Los Angeles Chargers

• Yes -200
• No +150

FiveThirtyEight gives the Chargers a 55% chance to make the playoffs, and a 0.3% chance to win the Super Bowl.

If one assumes FiveThirtyEight’s odds are correct, one can make the following calculations.

At a 55% chance to make the playoffs, betting on the Chargers to make the playoffs at -200 is bad odds, but betting against them at +150 is good value.

With a 0.3% chance to win the Super Bowl, it actually seems like the Chargers at +4000 is also bad value.

+4000 odds are 1-in-40, but 0.3% is 1-in-333.

In other words, even though the odds on the Chargers are getting longer, they aren’t getting long enough.

The best value bet, at this point, is taking them to miss the playoffs at +150 odds.