Is Taking A Team To Have A Winning Record A Good Bet?

• DraftKings posted odds on whether each NFL team will have a winning record in the upcoming season.
• Comparing odds for protected 8.5 win teams to have a winning record to odds for those teams to hit their 8.5 win O/Us suggests these props are reasonably fair wagers.
• Line shopping the 8.5 win line also leads us to the conclusion that DK is less convinced by the Patriots, Cardinals and Raiders than many other sportsbooks.

LAS VEGAS – DraftKings has posted special props on whether or not NFL teams will have winning records in the upcoming 2022-2023 season.

Our analysis suggests that these odds are quite fair based on DraftKings’ own O/Us, but that DraftKings in general might be more pessimistic about the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders than other sportsbooks are.

Comparing Team O/Us With These Wagers

With a 17 game season in the NFL in the upcoming season, a winning nine games is a winning record, while winning eight is a losing record.

In other words, taking a team that has an O/U of 8.5 wins in the 2022-2023 NFL season to have a winning record is the same as taking their wins over.

On DraftKings, there are three teams that have O/Us of 8.5 wins exactly. These teams are the Arizona Cardinals, the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Comparing these teams odds to have a winning record with their odds to go over 8.5 games can tell bettors if DraftKings is offering fair odds, and comparing them with the odds on other sportsbooks can tell bettors where the best place to wager on this bet would be.

This analysis suggests that DraftKings is posting fair odds on the Cardinals, as they have -105 odds to have a winning record, as well as -105 odds to win more than 8.5 games. Notably, the Cardinals have longer odds to go over at both Bovada and BetOnline.

The Patriots’ odds are in a similar situation to the Cardinals. DraftKings did not add in any extra juice, and their odds are shorter than Bovada’s and BetOnline’s once again, which could be due to pessimism about the Patriots.

The Raiders have -120 odds to go over at DraftKings, but -160 odds at Bovada, and -135 odds at BetOnline.

If you plan to bet overs, these are reasonable wagers, although it’s worth noting that unlike true O/U bets, these do not have another side to them.

One final note: it seems as though DraftKings is less convinced by the Raiders, Patriots and Cardinals than sportsbooks like Bovada and BetOnline.

Maxwell Sanders

Maxwell joined the BettingSuperBowl team in 2019 and is thrilled to be working for a website that so mirrors his interests. Maxwell is an avid follower of sports, a consumer of sports gambling news, and seeks to constantly better himself and his readers.