Mahomes Parlays Give Great Odds for AFC Championship Game

• A parlay of Patrick Mahomes 250+ passing yards, 2+ touchdowns, and KC to win sports +131 odds.
• At -115 to go under, Mahomes has never thrown over his prop of 286.5 vs the Cincinnati Bengals.
• Updates on Mahomes’ ankle injury continues to bring positive news.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs gear up to host their second straight AFC Championship game against the underdog Cincinnati Bengals. Mahomes has yet to beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in his career as he is 0-3.

Mahomes comes off a season where he threw for a career high in yards and completion percentage. Super Bowl betting sites have given him a passing yards prop of 286.5 as well as various parlays that combine his passing touchdowns, yards, and the Chiefs money line.

Mahomes has Struggled Vs the Bengals Defense

Despite an NFL career record 303 passing yards per game, Mahomes has averaged just 252.3 yards when facing the Joe Burrow-lead Bengals. This is in part a result of time of possession, where the Bengals have dominated by over eight minutes more than the Chiefs throughout the last three games combined.

In his last five games where he played the entire time, Mahomes has thrown for 287+ yards in three of them. However, the Bengals pass defense has been very impressive this year, allowing the lowest completion percentage in the league. This likely means that Mahomes will need to be quite efficient in his throws, especially because he has a yards per attempt of 7.5 against the Bengals, lower than his 8.1 career YPA.

Mahomes’ ankle so far appears to be a non-concern as he is practicing fully, though that doesn’t guarantee his health is 100%. Yet with no games in his career hitting the over against Burrow and the Bengals, bettors can enjoy solid -115 odds to go under his passing yards prop of 286.5.

Parlays Combine Likelihood and Odds Value

An especially intriguing option on NFL sportsbooks includes a parlay of Mahomes throwing 250+ pass yards, 2+ pass touchdowns, and KC to win at +131 odds.

While not hitting his yardage prop of 286.5 in any game vs the Bengals, Mahomes has managed at least 250 in two out of the three games, missing with 223 yards in this year’s regular season matchup. In terms of touchdowns, Mahomes has massive -401 odds to throw for two or more TDs and has also done so vs Cincinnati in the same two out of three games.

The Chiefs money line currently sits at -120, which may trend more in KC’s favor after Bengals starting linemen Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams have recently been ruled out. All three of these props included in the parlay have quite high likelihoods based on their individual odds.

At a betting-friendly +131, this three-leg parlay could be a nice money-maker for NFL viewers that already like the Chiefs to win which will almost surely be lead through the air via Mahomes’ generational passing prowess if it happens.