SB 57: Betting Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Range Props

• Jalen Hurts has +200 odds to pass for less than 200 yards in the Super Bowl.
• Hurts has gone under 200 yards in six games this season, including his two playoff games.
• Hurts has +225 odds to finish with a passing yards total between 201 and 250.

LAS VEGAS - Jalen Hurts will be the engine that drives the Philadelphia Eagles offense on Super Bowl Sunday – but will he do it with his legs, or his arm?

Hurts’ arm is much improved this year, but the Eagles are built on the run, which makes wagering on Hurts’ passing yardage fairly dicey.

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Range Odds

• 200 Or Less +200
• 201-250 +225
• 251-300 +250
• 301-350 +475
• 351 Or More +800

One easy way to evaluate this prop at Super Bowl sportsbooks is to compare Hurts’ passing numbers to his numbers for the whole season.

For example, Hurts has played in 17 games this season, counting the playoffs. In those games, he has gone for 200 or fewer yards six times.

Let’s look at his percentage chances to go over or under a given amount of yardage, based on his games played this season.

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Range This Season

• 200 Or Less 6/17
• 201-250 6/17
• 251-300 1/17
• 301-350 3/17
• 351 Or More 1/17

Based on these numbers, there are some clear potential inefficiencies. Both 200 or less and 201-250 are by far the most likely outcomes.

There’s slightly more value in betting on the +225 odds on 201-250. Not only is Hurts’ O/U line for the game within that range, but also he has exactly the same number of games within that range as he does at the +200 200 or less mark.

+200 odds indicate a one-in-three chance of an event occurring, while 6/17 is actually a bit more than one-in-three. This means either the +200 option or the +225 option are plausible wagers in terms of value for the money.

It should be noted that Hurts has gone under 200 yards in both of his previous Eagles playoff games this season.