Super Bowl 54 MVP Odds – Is It Mahomes’ Award To Lose?

• Patrick Mahomes has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to win Super Bowl MVP honors.
• The Chiefs quarterback’s MVP odds currently stand at +105.
• His arm is the engine that drives an explosive Chiefs offense.

MIAMI – Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has become well-accustomed to awards over the last two seasons, and the latest Super Bowl MVP odds give him a great chance of adding one more to his trophy case this Sunday.

At +105, Mahomes is the overwhelming favorite to be named the game’s most valuable player. The Chiefs’ matchup with the San Francisco 49ers is expected to be a highly competitive contest, which makes these odds more remarkable.

To translate these odds for the layman, they essentially mean that Mahomes is viewed as a near lock for the award if the Chiefs win the game. The former NFL MVP accounted for over 4,000 passing yards and averaged over eight yards per pass attempt in 2019, so this confidence isn’t exactly unwarranted.

Historically, quarterbacks also have the best odds of being Super Bowl MVP, claiming 12 of the last 20 MVP awards (60%) and 29 of 53 all time (55%). But Mahomes’ odds eclipse even those lofty numbers—assuming the Chiefs win, he has an over 90% projected chance of being named MVP.

For comparison, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who graded out as a top-10 quarterback by most advanced metrics, currently has odds of +260. These odds are much better than any other non-quarterback, but they lag considerably behind Mahomes.

Other Possible MVP Candidates

He has been so great that the next highest Chief on the list of top MVP candidates, Travis Kelce (+1500), has the fifth-best odds of winning the award, behind Garoppolo, running back Raheem Mostert (+700), and tight end George Kittle (+1400).

Because of the 49ers emphasis on stout defense and their propensity for forcing turnovers this postseason, the conditions appear to be favorable for a defensive player to win the award this year, but “favorable” is a relative term when defensive players account for less than 20% of all Super Bowl MVPs.

While no player is a guarantee to win the award, nobody else is consistently able to singlehandedly win football games the way Mahomes can. If the Chiefs win on Sunday, as they are favored to, it will take a Herculean effort for any of his teammates to supplant him for MVP honors.