Week 3 Thursday Night Football Trends: Cleveland Browns Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Cleveland Browns are favored to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at -210 odds.
• There is a 4.5-point spread on the game.
• The Steelers have won three of the last five meetings.

CLEVELAND – An AFC North divisional matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers will kick off Week 3 on Thursday Night Football where the Browns are going in as slight 4.5-point favorites.

Cleveland Browns Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Moneyline: Browns (-210) vs. Steelers (+175)
• Spread: Browns -4.5
• Total: 38.5 Points

Although the NFL betting odds for this game are clearly all in on the Browns coming away with a win, history tells a different story as all of the recent trends leading into this game are lying on Pittsburgh.

With that said, oddsmakers might have gotten the Steelers odds wrong in this one which makes for great value in betting their underdog odds here. First off, the Steelers have performed well in recent divisional games having gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the AFC North. Specifically against Cleveland, in their last six meetings, the Steelers have gone 5-1 ATS as well. The Steelers have also faired well when going into a game as an underdog between 4-5 points having gone 3-0 ATS in that scenario since 2015.

While those are strong reasons in backing the Steelers, there are even stronger points to make in fading the Browns odds. They are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. The Browns have also proven that they do not live up to expectations when going into a game favored by 4-5 points. Since 2012, they’ve been in that scenario four times and have gone 0-4 ATS and 1-3 straight up.

Looking back to the six matchups between the Browns and Steelers where Cleveland was favored to win, both teams have won three games, but Pittsburgh holds the advantage on the spread at 4-2.

Game Total Trends

Although 38.5 seems like a low enough number for the two to combine for the over, there are plenty of signs pointing towards the under. In the last nine meetings between the Browns and Steelers in Cleveland, the under has gone 7-2. In the last six games they’ve played that Cleveland has been favored, the under went 5-1.

The under has also been cashing in each of their recent games. For Pittsburgh, they’ve gone under in four of their last five games while Cleveland has gone under in six of their last nine games. In the last five games that Cleveland has been favored by 4-5 points on the spread, the under has gone 4-1. In the last four games that the Steelers were 4-5-point underdogs in general, the under has gone 3-1.