Why The Packers’ +12500 Super Bowl Odds Aren’t Long Enough

• The Green Bay Packers have +12500 odds to win the Super Bowl.
• The Packers have a 9% chance to make the Playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl.
• +12500 odds are generous, but even winning out wouldn’t guarantee them a Playoff spot.

GREEN BAY, WI. - The Green Bay Packers have +12500 odds to win the Super Bowl. Are they still a reasonable wager?

The Packers enter Week 16 at a fairly woeful 6-8, although a 24-12 victory over the Los Angeles Rams did see them improve to 6-8 against the spread as well.

The Packers began the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, with Aaron Rodgers under center.

Their odds before the season started ranged from +1000 to +700 at many online sportsbooks. Before Tom Brady returned to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Packers were even offseason NFC favorites.

What Needs To Happen For The Packers To Make The Playoffs?

The Packers obviously need to win every game they’ll be involved in from here on out if they want to make the Playoffs.

Their remaining games are against the Miami Dolphins, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Detroit Lions

If the Packers win all three of those games, the New York Times’ Upshot calculator gives them a 60% chance of making the Playoffs.

However, the Packers would not be in control of their own destiny. The Washington Commanders are ahead of them in line, and if they win out, the Packers would be in trouble.

The New York Giants could also be in contention to steal what could be the Packers’ Playoff spot.

The fact that the Packers have a game against the Lions is good – they are going to need the Lions to lose some games if they want to make the Playoffs.

Here’s what one plausible Packers-make-the-Playoffs scenario looks like:

• Week 16 – Packers beat Miami, 49ers beat Commanders
• Week 17 – Packers beat Minnesota, Bears beat Lions, Browns beat Commanders
• Week 18 – Packers beat Detroit, Rams beat Seahawks

This is, effectively, a seven leg parlay. It’s also the least amount of things that need to happen in order to make sure the Packers make the Playoffs.

Make no mistake, there are other ways for it to happen, but they are genuinely unlikely. The Packers, according to the NYT’s math, have a 9% chance to make the Playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl.

Their +12500 odds are significant, but their actual path is harder than even those odds would make it seem.